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Early detection of variants of concern via funnel plots of regional reproduction numbers

Milanesi, Simone
•
Rosset, Francesca
•
Colaneri, Marta
altro
Bruno, Raffaele
2023
  • journal article

Periodico
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Abstract
Early detection of the emergence of a new variant of concern (VoC) is essential to develop strategies that contain epidemic outbreaks. For example, knowing in which region a VoC starts spreading enables prompt actions to circumscribe the geographical area where the new variant can spread, by containing it locally. This paper presents 'funnel plots' as a statistical process control method that, unlike tools whose purpose is to identify rises of the reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), detects when a regional [Formula: see text] departs from the national average and thus represents an anomaly. The name of the method refers to the funnel-like shape of the scatter plot that the data take on. Control limits with prescribed false alarm rate are derived from the observation that regional [Formula: see text]'s are normally distributed with variance inversely proportional to the number of infectious cases. The method is validated on public COVID-19 data demonstrating its efficacy in the early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants in India, South Africa, England, and Italy, as well as of a malfunctioning episode of the diagnostic infrastructure in England, during which the Immensa lab in Wolverhampton gave 43,000 incorrect negative tests relative to South West and West Midlands territories.
DOI
10.1038/s41598-022-27116-8
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11390/1240304
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85146600293
https://ricerca.unityfvg.it/handle/11390/1240304
Diritti
open access
google-scholar
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