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Spatio-temporal chaos and clustering induced by nonlocal information and vaccine hesitancy in the SIR epidemic model

Banerjee M.
•
Ghosh S.
•
Manfredi P.
•
d'Onofrio A.
2023
  • journal article

Periodico
CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS
Abstract
Human behavior, and in particular vaccine hesitancy, is a critical factor for the control of childhood infectious disease. Here we propose a spatio-temporal behavioral epidemiology model where the vaccine propensity depends on information that is non-local in space and in time. The properties of the proposed model are analyzed under different hypotheses on the spatio-temporal kernels tuning the vaccination response of individuals. As a main result, we could numerically show that vaccine hesitancy induces the onset of many dynamic patterns of relevance for epidemiology. In particular we observed: behavior-modulated patterns and spatio-temporal chaos. This is the first known example of human behavior-induced spatio-temporal chaos in statistical physics of vaccination. Patterns and spatio-temporal chaos are difficult to deal with, from the Public Health viewpoint, hence showing that vaccine hesitancy can cause them could be of interest. Additionally, we propose a new simple heuristic algorithm to estimate the Maximum Lyapunov Exponent.
DOI
10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113339
WOS
WOS:001026781600001
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3042578
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85150418048
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113339
Diritti
open access
license:copyright editore
license:creative commons
license uri:iris.pri02
license uri:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/request-item?handle=11368/3042578
Soggetti
  • Vaccine hesitancy

  • Spatio-temporal chao

  • Statistical Physics o...

  • Non-locality

  • Turing bifurcation

  • Maximum Lyapunov Expo...

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