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Differential quantile-based sensitivity in discontinuous models

Pesenti, Silvana M.
•
Millossovich, Pietro
•
Tsanakas, Andreas
2025
  • journal article

Periodico
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Abstract
Differential sensitivity measures provide valuable tools for interpreting complex computational models, as used in applications ranging from simulation to algorithmic prediction. Taking the derivative of the model output in direction of a model parameter can reveal input-output relations and the relative importance of model parameters and input variables. Nonetheless, it is unclear how such derivatives should be taken when the model function has discontinuities and/or input variables are discrete. We present a general framework for addressing such problems, considering derivatives of quantile-based output risk measures, with respect to distortions to random input variables (risk factors), which impact the model output through step-functions. We prove that, subject to weak technical conditions, the derivatives are well-defined and we derive the corresponding formulas. We apply our results to the sensitivity analysis of compound risk models and to a numerical study of reinsurance credit risk in a multi-line insurance portfolio.
DOI
10.1016/j.ejor.2024.12.008
WOS
WOS:001413768700001
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3102159
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85214029252
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221724009500?via=ihub
Diritti
open access
license:creative commons
license uri:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/bitstream/11368/3102159/2/Differential.pdf
Soggetti
  • Sensitivity analysi

  • Importance measuremen...

  • Differential sensitiv...

  • Simulation

  • Risk measure

  • Credit risk

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