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Vaccine demand driven by vaccine side effects: Dynamic implications for SIR diseases

D'ONOFRIO A
•
Manfredi A
2010
  • journal article

Periodico
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
Abstract
For infections for which the perceived risk of serious disease is steadily low, the perceived risk of suffering some vaccine side effects might become the driving force of the vaccine demand. We investigate the dynamics of SIR infections in homogeneously mixing populations where the vaccine uptake is a decreasing function of the current (or past) incidence, or prevalence, of vaccine side effects. We define an appropriate model where vaccine side-effects are modelled as functions of the age since vaccination. It happens that the vaccine uptake follows its own dynamics independent of epidemiological variables. We show the conditions under which the vaccine uptake lands on a globally stable equilibrium, or steadily oscillates, and the implications of such behaviour for the dynamics of epidemiological variables. We finally report some unexpected scenarios caused by trends in vaccine side effects
DOI
10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.02.007
WOS
WOS:000277055500008
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3019756
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-77951652442
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.02.007
Diritti
metadata only access
Soggetti
  • Vaccine

  • Side effect

  • Rational exemption to...

  • Information

  • Delay

  • Stability

  • Oscillation

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