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Scenarios of technological progress in Italy: what can we expect?

Zotti, J
•
Socci, C
•
Severini, F
•
Infantino, G
2023
  • journal article

Periodico
INDUSTRY AND INNOVATION
Abstract
The simple but deep sense of technological progress (TP) lies in the possibility of improving human life. The immediate question thereafter is clearly about the distribution of the gains from TP. With the diffusion of automation and artificial intelligence, fears about the implications of TP on employment and wages have gained renewed importance. While scholars are divided on the effects of this new wave of TP, they agree that every economy will be affected differently, and hence, it will require tailored policy measures. In this paper, we frame how TP could affect the Italian economy, as it is now. We simulate four different scenarios through a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with three types of labour and six types of households. We calibrate the model on the social accounting matrix, and we find that TP returns higher growth patterns albeit with disruptive effects on labour.
DOI
10.1080/13662716.2022.2152313
WOS
WOS:000922509800001
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3047581
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85147350530
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13662716.2022.2152313
Diritti
open access
license:copyright editore
license:creative commons
license uri:iris.pri02
license uri:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/request-item?handle=11368/3047581
Soggetti
  • Automation and roboti...

  • skills and employment...

  • labour demand

  • Dynamic CGE model

  • social accounting mat...

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