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A Bayesian Markov-Switching for Smooth Modelling of Extreme Value Distributions

Gioia, Vincenzo
•
Di Credico, Gioia
•
Pauli, Francesco
2024
  • book part

Abstract
Markov-switching models are attractive for analysing time series that exhibit different stochastic processes along different periods, and where the regime-switching is controlled by an unobservable Markovian process. Model flexibility can be enhanced considering regime-specific distributions, whose distributional parameters may be modelled using smooth functions of covariates. Here, we propose a two-state Markov-switching model using full Bayesian inference and accounting for extreme value modelling. The proposal is illustrated by analysing energy prices.
DOI
10.1007/978-3-031-65723-8_10
WOS
WOS:001313800800010
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3087558
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-65723-8_10
Diritti
closed access
license:copyright editore
license uri:iris.pri02
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/request-item?handle=11368/3087558
Soggetti
  • Distributional regres...

  • Energy price modellin...

  • Regime-switching

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