L’evoluzione del conflitto in Ucraina e le proposte di risoluzione

Conflict between pro-Europe western and pro-Russia eastern Ukrainians started at the beginning of the 1990s and remained non-violent for 25 years. Western or eastern presidents usually won elections every 4-5 years. In 2004 there was the electoral ‘orange’ revolution and western Ukraine prevailed over pro Russia east, as Ukraine had remained a centralized state. In 2014 war started and both Crimea and Donbass declared a de facto independence. Crimea was annexed to Russia without any violence; war continued (even if at a lower intensity) in Donbass. In February 2022, Russia invaded eastern Ukraine and a war started between the two countries. 50,000 people died and there were 3 million and a half refugees. Any conflict resolution project was rejected by Putin and Zelensky, like an exchange (between Russian Crimea and Ukrainian Donbass), symmetric integration (federalism in Ukraine), single-nation separation (of both Crimea and Donbass, though a referendum). Conflict could evolve towards a de facto territorial compromise. Dominion of a single actor or subversion are less likely.