The installation of photovoltaic (PV) energy systems is growing continuously in the EU in line with 2030 energy and climate goals. However, the management of PV systems at the end-of-life phase is still in its infancy. This study investigates the feasibility of a circular supply chain for PV panels in the cross-border area comprising the Italian regions of Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, as well as Slovenia. To this end, projections of future PV capacity for 2030 and 2050 were developed based on NECP targets. A Weibull function simulation model was elaborated to estimate PV panel related waste production over the same time horizon: 482 kt of panels are estimated to be discarded in the area by 2050 in the regular loss and 687 kt in the early loss scenario. Based on cost information from literature, scenarios for total waste management costs and benefits are obtained. The territorial distribution of treatment and recycling facilities for similar waste (WEEE, glass) in the cross-border area under analysis is mapped, and future expected specific waste flows are compared with current flows. This identifies potential locations for specialised treatment plants and informs the scheduling of plant expansion based on waste availability projections.
