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Probabilistic prediction: aims and solutions

Giovanni Fonseca
•
Federica Giummolè
•
Paolo Vidoni
2022
  • conference object

Abstract
The goodness of a predictive distribution depends on the aim of the prediction. This presentation intends to shed light on properties of predictive distributions in use nowadays. We also propose a new predictive distribution that may be useful to obtain calibrated predictions for the probabilities of a future random variable of interest. This predictive distribution can be easily computed by a simple bootstrap procedure. In order to compare the different predictive distributions, some simulation studies are also presented.
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11390/1246305
https://www.openstarts.units.it/bitstream/10077/33741/7/Atti-IWSM-interni-completo.pdf
https://ricerca.unityfvg.it/handle/11390/1246305
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Soggetti
  • Bootstrap, Calibratio...

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