Background/objectives: The capability of the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method in the identification of the mandibular growth peak on an individual basis remains undetermined. The diagnostic reliability of the six-stage CVM method in the identification of the mandibular growth peak was thus investigated. Subjects/Methods: From the files of the Oregon and Burlington Growth Studies (data obtained between early 1950s and middle 1970s), 50 subjects (26 females, 24 males) with at least seven annual lateral cephalograms taken from 9 to 16 years were identified. Cervical vertebral maturation was assessed according to the CVM code staging system, and mandibular growth was defined as annual increments in Co–Gn distance. A diagnostic reliability analysis was carried out to establish the capability of the circumpubertal CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 in the identification of the imminent mandibular growth peak. Results: Variable durations of each of the CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 were seen.The overall diagnostic accuracy values for the CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 were 0.70, 0.76, and 0.77, respectively. These low values appeared to be due to false positive cases. Limitations: Secular trends in conjunction with the use of a discrete staging system. In most of the Burlington Growth Study sample, the lateral head film at age 15 was missing. Conclusions/Implications: None of the CVM stages 2, 3, and 4 reached a satisfactorily diagnostic reliability in the identification of imminent mandibular growth peak
