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Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines

Simmonds, Emily G.
•
Adjei, Kwaku Peprah
•
Andersen, Christoffer Wold
altro
O'Hara, Robert B.
2022
  • journal article

Periodico
ISCIENCE
Abstract
Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty'' framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.
DOI
10.1016/j.isci.2022.105512
WOS
WOS:000924077500003
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11767/142973
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85145726453
https://ricerca.unityfvg.it/handle/20.500.11767/142973
Diritti
open access
Soggetti
  • Statistical physics

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