Cellular functions crucially depend on the precise execution of complex biochemical reactions taking place on the chromatin fiber in the tightly packed environment of the cell nucleus. Despite the availability of large datasets probing this process from multiple angles, bottom-up frameworks that allow the incorporation of the sequence-specific nature of biochemistry in a unified model of 3D chromatin structure remain scarce. Here, we propose Sequence-Enhanced Magnetic Polymer (SEMPER), a novel stochastic polymer model that naturally incorporates observational data about sequence-driven biochemical processes, such as binding of transcription factor proteins, in a 3D model of chromatin structure. We introduce a novel approximate Bayesian algorithm to quantify a posteriori the relative importance of various factors, including the polymeric nature of DNA, in determining chromatin epigenetic state, thus providing a transparent way to generate biological hypotheses. Although accurate prediction of contact frequencies (a problem already extensively studied in the literature) is not our main aim, as a by-product of the inference procedure and without additional input from the genome 3D structure, our model can predict with reasonable accuracy some notable and nontrivial conformational features of chromatin folding within the nucleus. Our work highlights the importance of introducing physically realistic statistical models for predicting chromatin states from epigenetic data and opens the way to a new class of more systematic approaches to interpreting epigenomic data.
