DEMOGRAPHICS, MINORITIES, MIGRATION AND NEW GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS IN THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT

Considering the demographic structure of the northern and southern shores of the Mediterranean several complementary patterns can be easily defined. The states that extend along the south are, as noted, characterised by a substantial concentration of youthful populations, with over 30% of the population under fifteen years of age. In the north instead the societies are distinguishable for the ageing process under way, with over 18% of the population above 65 years of age. Equally, in Europe annual birth rates are close to the substitution rate, while along the African-Asian coast the rate reaches 3.9% in some areas, as for example in the Gaza Strip1. Containment of this demographic spurt constitutes a priority for the area’s various governments: Egypt, Iran and Turkey have begun programmes aimed at curbing births, supported by UN programmes2. Syria and Jordan have not expressly adopted such policies. But slowing growth is not always the goal of national population policies. Even in the highgrowth Middle East two governments actually encourage large families, those of Saudi Arabia and Israel3. As is known, one of the principal declared objectives of Zionism is to make the Jewish people into a nation like many others. The impossibility of transforming, for well-known reasons, emergency policies into a routine has increased the weight of the demographic question such that often the geographic dimension of the conflict is pushed into the background, especially in the recurring debates amongst the Israeli people. The Israeli interest in the future size, composition and age structure of the population has increased in recent years due to the large number of immigrants – arriving primarily from the former USSR. This interest stems from the need for economic and social policies adapted to the needs of a quickly-growing and fast-changing population. Projections present potential developments in the size, composition and structure of Israel’s population, based on developments in fertility, mortality and migration patterns. The state of Israel has been defined as a Western country that at the same time presents characteristics typical of a developing society4. One of these aspects is of course demography, which remains more similar to those countries of the southern shore of the Mediterranean, even excluding the birth rates of the Orthodox communities. The demographic question remains one of the more difficult aspects of defining a scenario of peaceful co-existence between Israel, a future Palestinian entity, and other Arab governments. A framework summarising the entire problem can be drawn up with just a few statistics.[...]