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Prediction intervals based on multiplicative model combinations

Mameli, Valentina
•
Vidoni, Paolo
2022
  • conference object

Abstract
The aim of this paper is to define prediction intervals based on multiplicative combination of elementary density functions as an useful surrogate of the true unknown predictive model for the interest random phenomenon. The specification of the weights associated to the individual density forecasts is performed by considering the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and its weighted extensions. A simple simulation study shows that, using a suitable weighted version of the CRPS, the estimated combined model provides prediction intervals having a coverage probability closed to the target nominal value.
Archivio
http://hdl.handle.net/11390/1228704
https://it.pearson.com/docenti/universita/partnership/sis.html
https://ricerca.unityfvg.it/handle/11390/1228704
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closed access
Soggetti
  • CRPS, coverage probab...

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