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Behavioral SIR models with incidence-based social-distancing

Alberto d'Onofrio
•
Piero Manfredi
2022
  • journal article

Periodico
CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS
Abstract
Most available behavioral epidemiology models have linked the behavioral responses of individuals to infection prevalence. However, this is a crude approximation of reality because prevalence is typically an unobserved quantity. This work considers a general endemic SIR epidemiological model where behavioral responses are incidence-based i.e., the agents perceptions of risks are based on available information on infection incidence. The differences of this modeling approach with respect to the standard 'prevalence-based' formulations are discussed and its dynamical implications are investigated. Both current and delayed behavioral responses are considered. We show that depending on the form of the 'memory' (i.e., in mathematical language, of the information delaying kernel), the endemic equilibrium can either be globally stable or destabilized via Hopf bifurcations yielding to stable recurrent oscillations. These oscillations can have a very long inter-epidemic periods and a very wide amplitude. Finally, a numerical investigation of the interplay between these behavior-related oscillations and seasonality of the contact rate reveals a strong synergic effect yielding to a dramatic amplification of oscillations. (c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DOI
10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112072
WOS
WOS:000801857600005
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3029098
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85129531421
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007792200282X
Diritti
open access
license:copyright editore
license:creative commons
license uri:iris.pri02
license uri:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/request-item?handle=11368/3029098
Soggetti
  • SIR model

  • Social distancing

  • Incidence-based respo...

  • Time-delay

  • Oscillations

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