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Is the present the key to the future?

FURLANI, STEFANO
•
Ninfo, Andrea
2015
  • journal article

Periodico
EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS
Abstract
The empirical and conceptual relationships between Earth surface processes and global changes are very complex. The concept that “the present is the key of the future” implies that we know enough the present to be able to extend our knowledge forward to focus on the future. Field and remote observations on the present-day Earth surface processes represent the methodological instruments for the forecasting. At the end of the 1980s, the scientific community predicted a significant increase of global warming followed by changes in the trends of related surface processes. Some processes, such as the Arctic and Antarctic snow melting are now accelerating and even irreversible; thus these trends show that we are now in an ‘out of scale’ discontinuity moment. Present-day measures and observations could be scarcely significant and may add uncertainty in the prediction of future trends. The ‘out-of-scale’ trend raises a fundamental question regarding the present, since it may provide a new angle of thought for contemporary theoretical approaches. The need for reducing the uncertainty in the trends of future processes requires a deep rethinking of the current paradigms in order to consider also the ‘out of scale‘ trends.
DOI
10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.12.005
WOS
WOS:000351649300003
Archivio
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825214002256
http://hdl.handle.net/11368/2870212
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84923066519
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00128252
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825214002256
Diritti
closed access
license:digital rights management non definito
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/request-item?handle=11368/2870212
Soggetti
  • Climate change

  • Epistemology

  • Forecasting

  • Prediction

  • Theoretical geomorpho...

  • Uncertainty

  • Earth and Planetary S...

Web of Science© citazioni
21
Data di acquisizione
Mar 26, 2024
Visualizzazioni
2
Data di acquisizione
Apr 19, 2024
Vedi dettagli
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