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Simulating the Economic Impact of Rationality through Reinforcement Learning and Agent-Based Modelling

Simone Brusatin
•
Tommaso Padoan
•
Andrea Coletta
altro
Aldo Glielmo
2024
  • conference object

Abstract
Agent-based models (ABMs) are simulation models used in economics to overcome some of the limitations of traditional frameworks based on general equilibrium assumptions. However, agents within an ABM follow predetermined ‘bounded rational’ behavioural rules which can be cumbersome to design and difficult to justify. Here we leverage multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) to expand the capabilities of ABMs with the introduction of ‘fully rational’ agents that learn their policy by interacting with the environment and maximising a reward function. Specifically, we propose a ‘Rational macro ABM’ (R-MABM) framework by extending a paradigmatic macro ABM from the economic literature. We show that gradually substituting ABM firms in the model with RL agents, trained to maximise profits, allows for studying the impact of rationality on the economy. We find that RL agents spontaneously learn three distinct strategies for maximising profits, with the optimal strategy depending on the level of market competition and rationality. We also find that RL agents with independent policies, and without the ability to communicate with each other, spontaneously learn to segregate into different strategic groups, thus increasing market power and overall profits. Finally, we find that a higher number of rational (RL) agents in the economy always improves the macroeconomic environment as measured by total output. Depending on the specific rational policy, this can come at the cost of higher instability. Our R-MABM framework allows for stable multi-agent learning, is available in open source, and represents a principled and robust direction to extend economic simulators.
DOI
10.1145/3677052.3698621
WOS
WOS:001443057200019
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3098138
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85214883885
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3677052.3698621
Diritti
closed access
license:copyright editore
license uri:iris.pri02
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/request-item?handle=11368/3098138
Soggetti
  • agent-based modelling...

  • reinforcement learnin...

  • macroeconomics

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