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Bayes in the sky: Bayesian inference and model selection in cosmology

Trotta R.
2008
  • journal article

Periodico
CONTEMPORARY PHYSICS
Abstract
The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more traditional statistical tools, offering the advantage of higher efficiency and of a consistent conceptual basis for dealing with the problem of induction in the presence of uncertainty. This trend is likely to continue in the future, when the way we collect, manipulate and analyse observations and compare them with theoretical models will assume an even more central role in cosmology. This review is an introduction to Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics and recent results in the field. I first present Bayesian probability theory and its conceptual underpinnings, Bayes' Theorem and the role of priors. I discuss the problem of parameter inference and its general solution, along with numerical techniques such as Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. I then review the theory and application of Bayesian model comparison, discussing the notions of Bayesian evidence and effective model complexity, and how to compute and interpret those quantities. Recent developments in cosmological parameter extraction and Bayesian cosmological model building are summarised, highlighting the challenges that lie ahead.
DOI
10.1080/00107510802066753
WOS
WOS:000257343400001
Archivio
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11767/116957
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-46649096427
Diritti
closed access
Soggetti
  • Bayesian methods

  • Cosmology

  • Data analysis

  • Model comparison

  • Parameter inference

  • Statistical methods

  • Settore FIS/05 - Astr...

Web of Science© citazioni
744
Data di acquisizione
Mar 26, 2024
Visualizzazioni
1
Data di acquisizione
Apr 19, 2024
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