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A theory of multivariate stress testing

Millossovich, Pietro
•
Tsanakas, Andreas
•
Wang, Ruodu
2024
  • journal article

Periodico
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Abstract
We present a theoretical framework for stressing multivariate stochastic models. We consider a stress to be a change of measure, placing a higher weight on multivariate scenarios of interest. In particular, a stressing mechanism is a mapping from random vectors to Radon–Nikodym densities. We postulate desirable properties for stressing mechanisms addressing alternative objectives. Consistently with our focus on dependence, we require throughout invariance to monotonic transformations of risk factors. We study in detail the properties of two families of stressing mechanisms, based respectively on mixtures of univariate stresses and on transformations of statistics we call Spearman and Kendall's cores. Furthermore, we characterize the aggregation properties of those stressing mechanisms, which motivate their use in deriving new capital allocation methods, with properties different to those typically found in the literature. The proposed methods are applied to stress testing and capital allocation, using the simulation model of a UK-based non-life insurer.
DOI
10.1016/j.ejor.2024.06.002
WOS
WOS:001267962200001
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/11368/3101438
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85196529738
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0377221724004302
Diritti
closed access
license:copyright editore
license uri:iris.pri02
FVG url
https://arts.units.it/request-item?handle=11368/3101438
Soggetti
  • Dependence

  • Probability distortio...

  • Risk measure

  • Sensitivity analysi

  • Stress testing

  • Systemic risk

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