Semiclassical orthogonal polynomials, matrix models and isomonodromic tau functions

The differential systems satisfied by orthogonal polynomials with arbitrary semiclassical measures supported on contours in the complex plane are derived, as well as the compatible systems of deformation equations obtained from varying such measures. These are shown to preserve the generalized monodromy of the associated rank-2 rational covariant derivative operators. The corresponding matrix models, consisting of unitarily diagonalizable matrices with spectra supported on these contours are analyzed, and it is shown that all coefficients of the associated spectral curves are given by logarithmic derivatives of the partition function or, more generally, the gap probabilities. The associated isomonodromic tau functions are shown to coincide, within an explicitly computed factor, with these partition functions.