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Inference and risk measurement with the pari-mutuel model

PELESSONI, RENATO
•
VICIG, PAOLO
•
Zaffalon M.
2010
  • journal article

Periodico
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING
Abstract
We explore generalizations of the pari-mutuel model (PMM), a formalization of an intuitive way of assessing an upper probability from a precise one. We discuss a naive extension of the PMM considered in insurance, compare the PMM with a related model, the Total Variation Model, and generalize the natural extension of the PMM introduced by P. Walley and other pertained formulae. The results are subsequently given a risk measurement interpretation: in particular it is shown that a known risk measure, Tail Value at Risk (TVaR), is derived from the PMM, and a coherent risk measure more general than TVaR from its imprecise version. We analyze further the conditions for coherence of a related risk measure, Conditional Tail Expectation. Conditioning with the PMM is investigated too, computing its natural extension, characterising its dilation and studying the weaker concept of imprecision increase.
DOI
10.1016/j.ijar.2010.08.005
WOS
WOS:000285169600010
SCOPUS
2-s2.0-84862690567
Archivio
http://hdl.handle.net/11368/2297572
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V07-50V5NJJ-5&_user=451406&_coverDate=11%2F30%2F2010&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_origin=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1559753861&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000021583&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=451406&md5=bf0dcda3f07f7f81728b4f84fa932dd6&searchtype=a
Diritti
metadata only access
Soggetti
  • Pari-mutuel model

  • Risk measures

  • Natural extension

  • Dilation

  • 2-Monotonicity

  • Imprecision increase

Web of Science© citazioni
30
Data di acquisizione
Mar 21, 2024
Visualizzazioni
1
Data di acquisizione
Apr 19, 2024
Vedi dettagli
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