In this article the author considers Europe to be the result of the sedimentation of many united Europes, starting from the Roman and Carolingian empires, which provide a number of attempts at united Europes: the former with its centre in the south of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the latter with its centre in northern Europe. From these attempts at least two Europes began, ultimately producing the present European Union (EU). The first united Europe was made up of a range of European states and was set up by the knightly, noble and feudal classes with the spread of similar styles, structures, religions (Chris-tianity) and powers. This was followed by a second united Europe based on nation-states and modern empires; fruit of the Enlightenment, it was formed in each one by the intellectual classes and then by the entrepreneurial, commercial and financial classes which characterised Europe until the First World War. The third united Europe is the one which emerged from new values – peace and the individual – and is legitimised by a civil society made up of organisations working upwards from the grass roots. Emerging from the aftermath of the Second World War, this third united Europe is still developing. For how long? For as long as possible, it is to be hoped. The second part of the article takes a long look at the future of this third united Europe, analysing four scenarios projected up to 2050. Starting from the present scenario, scenarios for the future are worked out. We can define them in the following ways: 1) the pure catastrophic scenario: it sees the disappearance of the United Europe or this becomes an empty shell; 2) the realistic catastrophic scenario: it sees the United Europe to become an entity in which internal asymmetrical relations take form, completely open towards the strong-est states and close enough (for the circulation and rules) towards the internal peripheral or smaller states or more little, operating a kind of colonialism; 3) the realistic ideal scenario: it sees that the United Europe keeps the “promises” made and the “premises” from which it is born, except that its member states are still strong and their “reserve of powers”. Outwards the EU always remains and keeps the features of an International Organisation; 4) finally the pure ideal scenario: it sees the transformation of the EU in a federal state, in which the sovereignty of the federate state remains more and more soft so much that it disappears, at least in the aspects of general coordination and of the management of the EU general policies. The discussion of the four scenarios verifies which of them will be carried out in the future: after 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. 40 years. It is more likely that the fifth scenario occurs, that is a scenario that collects elements from each of the scenarios considered before and it assumes a further configuration with respect to those are forecast.
