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Effectiveness of isolation measures with app support to contain COVID-19 epidemics: a parametric approach

Maiorana, Andrea
•
Meneghelli, Marco
•
Resnati, Mario
2021
  • journal article

Periodico
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
Abstract
In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical model to compute the relative suppression of the effective reproduction number of an epidemic that such measures produce. This outcome is expressed as a function of a small set of parameters that describe the main features of the epidemic and summarize the effectiveness of the isolation measures. In particular, we focus on the impact when a fraction of the population uses a mobile application for epidemic control. Finally, we apply the model to COVID-19, providing several computations as examples, and a link to a public repository to run custom calculations. These computations display in a quantitative manner the importance of recognizing infected individuals from symptoms and contact-tracing information, and isolating them as early as possible. The computations also assess the impact of each variable on the mitigation of the epidemic.
DOI
10.1007/s00285-021-01660-9
WOS
WOS:000702785000001
Archivio
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11767/142610
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85116356426
https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.02349
https://ricerca.unityfvg.it/handle/20.500.11767/142610
Diritti
closed access
Soggetti
  • COVID-19

  • Contact tracing

  • Epidemic models

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