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The Pari-Mutuel Model

PELESSONI, RENATO
•
VICIG, PAOLO
•
Zaffalon M.
2009
  • conference object

Abstract
We explore generalizations of the pari-mutuel model (PMM), a formalization of an intuitive way of assessing an upper probability from a precise one. We discuss a naive extension of the PMM considered in insurance and generalize the natural extension of the PMM introduced by P. Walley and other related formulae. The results are subsequently given a risk measurement interpretation: in particular it is shown that a known risk measure, Tail Value at Risk (TVaR), is derived from the PMM, and a coherent risk measure more general than TVaR from its imprecise version. We analyze further the conditions for coherence of a related risk measure, Conditional Tail Expectation. Explicit formulae for conditioning the PMM and conditions for dilation or imprecision increase are also supplied and discussed.
Archivio
http://hdl.handle.net/11368/2297729
Diritti
metadata only access
Soggetti
  • Pari-mutuel model

  • risk measure

  • natural extension

  • dilation

  • 2-monotonicity

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