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A hierarchical Bayesian model for house effects in pre-electoral polls

PAULI, FRANCESCO
•
DE STEFANO, DOMENICO
•
TORELLI, Nicola
2013
  • conference object

Abstract
It is widely known that pre-electoral polls often suffer from non-sampling errors which pollsters try to compensate in final estimates by means of diverse ad hoc adjustments, thus leading to the well-known house effects. We analyze vote share predictions from election polls in Italy in 2006, 2008 and 2013 in order to investigate the relative role of house effects on their variability. We are able to confirm that the variability due to house effect is the most important source of variation
Archivio
http://hdl.handle.net/11368/2707881
Diritti
metadata only access
Soggetti
  • House effect

  • Pre-Electoral poll

  • Hierarchical model

  • Meta analysis

Visualizzazioni
5
Data di acquisizione
Apr 19, 2024
Vedi dettagli
google-scholar
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