Purpose: To identify clinical and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) factors predicting false positive target biopsy (FP-TB) of prostate imaging reporting and data system version 2.1 (PI-RADSv2.1) ≥ 3 findings. Method: We retrospectively included 221 men with and without previous negative prostate biopsy who underwent 3.0 T/1.5 T mpMRI for suspicious clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) between April 2019-July 2021. A study coordinator revised mpMRI reports provided by one of two radiologists (experience of > 1500/>500 mpMRI examinations, respectively) and matched them with the results of transperineal systematic biopsy plus fusion target biopsy (TB) of PI-RADSv2.1 ≥ 3 lesions or PI-RADSv2.1 ≤ 2 men with higher clinical risk. A multivariable model was built to identify features predicting FP-TB of index lesions, defined as the absence of csPCa (International Society of Urogenital Pathology [ISUP] ≥ 2). The model was internally validated with the bootstrap technique, receiving operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, and decision analysis. Results: Features significantly associated with FP-TB were age < 65 years (odds ratio [OR] 2.77), prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) < 0.15 ng/mL/mL (OR 2.45), PI-RADS 4/5 category vs. category 3 (OR 0.15/0.07), and multifocality (OR 0.46), with a 0.815 area under the curve (AUC) in assessing FP-TB. When adjusting PI-RADSv2.1 categorization for the model, mpMRI showed 87.5% sensitivity and 79.9% specificity for csPCa, with a greater net benefit in triggering biopsy compared to unadjusted categorization or adjustment for PSAD only at decision analysis, from threshold probability ≥ 15%. Conclusion: Adjusting PI-RADSv2.1 categories for a multivariable risk of FP-TB is potentially more effective in triggering TB of index lesions than unadjusted PI-RADS categorization or adjustment for PSAD alone.
